Update 6/19/2020
Much of what this article predicted has been proven true and that is just like the WMD predictions that got us into the war with Iraq, this has proven to be a much milder virus than all the scare tactics predicted (which sadly still continue).
Reference: NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests COVID Not As Deadly as Thought. Did the Experts Fail Again?
FORWARD
OVERREACTION WITH THE WUHAN CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) & MAKING IT POLITICAL
My niece is a Teaching Doctor with additional pHd and specializes in Geriatric care and lives and works in the epicenter of the Coronavirus outbreak in Washington; she has stated that the media has way over blown this and stated the need to shut everything down is ridiculous and only leads to fear, hoarding, undo stress, & even suicide.
Yes we do need to shut down some things such as maybe schools and very large venues and certainly practice social distancing. HOWEVER, we also should not be holed up in our homes, getting fresh air outdoors along with exercise! Any Doctor worth his or her salt will tell you this too!!!
Also, one major aspect of this virus that is NOT being reported is that many who have the virus, never show a symptom or the symptoms are very mild.
As well the death statistics are based on bad base numbers. As with influenza, many who contract this virus show little or no symptoms and then never seek medical help. These people then never become part of the data base.
My point, as an example, is if you have a base of say 100 people and 2 persons die you have a 2% death rate, but the facts are the base is much higher due to those never reported.
My wife works a local major retailer told me just yesterday that there are people in line crying in fear (many in their 30s and clearly not in the risk group)
Also here in Oregon, our Governor (Kate Brown) is shutting down businesses (that the facts show has not contributed to the spread of this virus), thus destroying peoples livelihoods and add even more to stress and potential suicides!
Finally, what is also not being reported is that some tests are now showing a drug that has been around for a long time; Chloraquine Phosphate (used for treatment of Malaria), has been effective when used early with Coronavirus (despite claims to the contrary which is why there is still a shortage in my industry as Doctors continue to snap it up).
References: *Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies
*An effective treatment for #Coronavirus #COVID-19 has been found in a common anti-malarial drug
*Old malaria drug hydroxychloroquine may help cure coronavirus: study
This has also caused a rush on products that contain Chloraquine even though not intended for human use, such as aquarium treatments with eBay and others selling small quantities for over $300 (although not all sellers are gouging such as AAP Marex Chloraquine Phosphate)
PLEASE READ ON:
MORE IN DEPTH: Please Read On
QUOTE from Steve Elliott:
"America and the world are rushing headlong into a global recession sparked, not by a deadly virus but, by FEAR of a deadly virus.
Since the ramifications for our nation -- and for you and me individually -- are quite enormous, I want to offer you some context and resources that can help you sort out the TRUTH of what's really happening.
+ + Biggest FEAR PLAY I've ever seen.
First off, this is without a doubt the most widespread FEAR PLAY I've ever seen. Visit Drudge Report today and you'll discover TWENTY-SIX links at the top of the page about the Chinese Coronavirus -- all DOOM AND GLOOM.
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There is no context. No counterpoint. And it's the same just about everywhere.
Yes, it's a new, deadly virus, but the actions being taken by world leaders to SHUT DOWN entire countries (Italy is now shut down) may be a dangerous overreaction.
If we allow FEAR to rule the day, we could find ourselves in a global recession that negatively affects our families in profound ways and even directly impacts our November elections.
I don't need to go so far as to say the upcoming election is the motivation behind the fear push, although some in the pundit class are already calling this "Trump's Katrina" and the New York Times published an op-ed calling it the "TrumpVirus." Still, it is a very likely reality that our elections could be significantly impacted by the fear push by publicly damaging the President. (Of course, it could go the other way and the President's actions in response to the Coronavirus crisis could actually boost his approval.)
So why am I more concerned with the FEAR than the VIRUS?
+ + Busting the Myths...
Because I've been doing some digging...
And it's looking more and more like the Chinese Coronavirus will ultimately look a lot more like the 2009-10 Swine Flu Pandemic than the Apocalypse that Drudge and everyone else is pushing.
Before I go on, I want to say that we must take the Chinese Coronavirus seriously. There is a good possibility that hundreds of thousands of people (or more) may die as a result of this virus. And if that happens, it will have a similar impact as the 2009 Swine Flu which infected 60 million Americans and killed more than a HALF MILLION people worldwide.
Yet, I don't recall ANY GLOBAL SWINE FLU PANIC in 2009 -- certainly nothing even close to the "SHUT DOWN" fears we're experiencing now.
Interestingly, Swine Flu at its outset was thought to possibly have a 4% mortality rate -- about the same as the current chatter surrounding the Chinese Coronavirus. In retrospect, the mortality rate for the Swine Flu Pandemic turned out to be far below 1% (perhaps .1%). Still, a HALF MILLION people died. Yet the stock market didn't go through historic convulsions because of the flu. Countries didn't shut down. Life went on.
So here are three CHINESE CORONAVIRUS MYTHS I want to bust with some fact-based realities that can keep us from cultural and economic shutdown.
Myth #1 -- Chinese Coronavirus's mortality rate is OFF THE CHARTS
Myth #2 -- Chinese Coronavirus is SUPER VIRAL, way worse than the flu
Myth #3 -- Chinese Coronavirus is an INDISCRIMINATE KILLER
To bust these myths, here are four realities about the Chinese Coronavirus...
+ + REALITY #1 -- The mortality rate is likely FAR LOWER than currently feared
Currently, the FEAR PUSHERS are reporting that the mortality rate from this Coronavirus is 3.4%. That's not true. The World Health Organization says the "crude mortality ratio" (total deaths divided by total infected) is "between 3 and 4 percent." But a mortality ratio and a mortality rate are two different things. First off, the early predictions of mortality rates for these outbreaks are almost always high and misleading because we simply do not have enough data. (See more on this here.) Once there is additional data, the mortality ratio generally drops, and thus, the mortality rate predictions drop as well.
So what's the best guess for the mortality rate for the Chinese Coronavirus? Here's what Adm. Brett Giroir at the Department of Health and Human Services said last week: "The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent. That's lower than you've heard probably in many reports."
If Giroir is correct, then we can stop all the panic. Yes, LOTS OF PEOPLE WILL DIE -- just like the Swine Flu Pandemic of a decade ago. Yes, we should take precautions. But this will not be a culture-shifting event. And it shouldn't be treated as such.
But is Giroir correct?
Most likely, yes. The strongest data set we currently have to project the Chinese Coronavirus mortality rate is coming from South Korea, where extensive testing has been done. As of 3/10, here's the data out of South Korea:
189,000 people tested
7,513 tested positive for COVID-19
52 deaths
Do the math. The current "crude mortality ratio" in South Korea is .69% (52 / 7,513) -- about 80% lower than the 3.4% discussed commonly. This is amazingly consistent with the mortality rate in China outside of Wuhan -- .7%. Even the small case study of the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was stranded at the onset of the outbreak also suggests a lower mortality rate -- 705 infected, 6 deaths (.9%). So far, Germany has reported an even lower rate -- 1,139 cases and just two deaths (.017%). (You can see the latest numbers for every country reporting here.)
The real data right now indicates a high probability of a CEILING of .7% mortality rate, at least in developed countries.
I say CEILING because with awareness will come more testing and early diagnosis and better treatments and fewer deaths. Thus, I believe it is quite reasonable to project, based on what we now know, that the actual mortality rate for those who contract the Chinese Coronavirus will be less than .7%. (For comparison, the odds of a car crash being the cause of your death is roughly 1%, and since only a smallish percentage of us will contract the Chinese Coronavirus, cars are still way more likely to kill you than this coronavirus.)
Yes, America's mortality numbers from this coronavirus look bad right now, but that's primarily because of the small sample size and that we haven't really begun any widespread testing.
I want to be clear. Even a .7% mortality rate could result in a global pandemic that could kill hundreds of thousands or even millions. It's a major deal that needs to be taken very seriously. But it does not justify GLOBAL PANIC, shutting down entire nations, disrupting our everyday lives, causing massive job losses, forcing America and the world into global recession, and possibly swaying the outcome of our presidential election!
+ + Reality #2
-- Chinese Coronavirus may be LESS VIRAL than seasonal flu
After all the fear mongering and end-of-world posts everywhere, I was surprised to discover in the WHO literature that influenza likely "spreads faster" than Chinese Coronavirus. Also, the Chinese Coronavirus is LESS LIKELY than influenza to be transmitted in the first days of symptoms or before symptoms present.
Here's how the WHO explains it:
Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different?
A. The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID19.
Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission - transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms - is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
So the Chinese Coronavirus is possibly LESS VIRAL than the seasonal flu. I'm not hearing that much from the FEAR MONGERS. One would think we're all doomed to get the virus, and then death is a crapshoot.
Not only are we not all doomed to get the virus, if you do contract COVID-19 you might not get sick enough to know it or even go to the doctor, and you'll very likely survive just fine.
Which leads us to our third important Chinese Coronavirus realty...
+ + Reality #3
-- Chinese Coronavirus targets the elderly and especially those with existing health conditions
Unlike the seasonal flu or the Swine Flu Pandemic which impacted both young and old and everyone in between, we now know that the Chinese Coronavirus very much targets people over the age of 70 and especially the elderly with respiratory and other pre-existing ailments.
At the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, this Coronavirus resulted in a very ominous mortality rate of nearly 15% for those 80 and over and perhaps 10% for those in their 70s. But skew the age down to people in their 50s and the morality rate plummeted to 1.3%.
And the younger you are, the more resistant you are to the virus: .4% mortality rate for those in 40s, and just .2% for ages 10 to 39. From what I can see there are NO REPORTED DEATHS in China of those under 10, which is quite a stunning fact of this virus that is terribly under-reported by the FEAR MEDIA.
Also, the Chinese Coronavirus acts like other respiratory illnesses in that it is exacerbated by pre-existing conditions. Based on China's data, here are the mortality rates for those who had the Chinese Coronavirus:
and cardiovascular disease: 10.5%
and diabetes: 7.3%
and high blood pressure: 6.0%
and cancer: 5.6%
and no other reported health conditions: .9%!
That last line is very telling. It may prove out that existing health conditions are far more of a concern with this virus than age. And here's another important point: Unlike the seasonal flu and the Swine Flu, not only are children far less susceptible to the Chinese Coronavirus, children are not the main transmitters.
Children who do get sick seem to get the Chinese Coronavirus from adults, not other children. So we don't need to shut down the schools.
All this is very significant. Instead of a WIDE-SCALE SHUTDOWN OF SOCIETY that is now being forced upon us, perhaps we can target our response to safeguarding those over, say, 70, or those with existing health conditions.
Let's do aggressive testing for those over 70 or those with health conditions. Let's learn from countries like Germany, whose excellent elderly care may explain the country's current low mortality ratio of just .017%.
So we may have caught a break. Yes, seniors are in danger. But our response to the outbreak can be very targeted, and since children are less susceptible both to the disease and as transmitters, it may not prove to be as widespread as, for example, the Swine Flu (which infected 60 million Americans!).
The targeted nature of the virus toward the elderly is another good reason NOT to panic and NOT to disrupt our normal lives and NOT to throw our nation into lockdown and NOT to create an economic meltdown and NOT to allow fear to determine our future!
All this leads me to a fourth reality, and some actions we can take...
+ + Reality #4
-- We have already OVERREACTED and now our overreaction is the main danger!
It's clear that we have already overreacted. As of this writing, 28 people in the U.S. have died, and our national reaction has already sent the stock market into historic convulsions. We have started down the slippery slope to cultural and economic shutdown. Events are being cancelled. Businesses are putting a moratorium on travel. People are hoarding... toilet paper! You can feel it coming. Shutdown.
As I've shown, the REALITY data does not warrant this over-reaction, nor does our current situation. Consider this: If we're already in the beginning stages of shutdown with just a handful of deaths, WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE when the U.S. death toll reaches 100, and then 1,000? Because of our over-reaction now, we will almost be forced into societal shutdown as the death toll rises.
And it will rise. Why? Because we're dealing with a virus that likely CANNOT BE CONTROLLED and could very likely kill thousands if not tens of thousands or more Americans. This is the reality with pandemics. Thankfully, it now appears the Chinese Coronavirus is NOT the Armageddon virus the FEAR MEDIA would have us believe it is.
And the fear is dangerous. Here's what Dr. Abu Sharkaway -- an infectious disease expert in Toronto -- posted on Facebook last week:
"I am not scared of Covid-19. What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world."
+ + How to fight back against the fear...
So what do we do? How do we push back against the FEAR NARRATIVE?
First, we CONTINUE TO GATHER INFORMATION independent of the FEAR-BASED MEDIA SYSTEM. Grassfire is going to do our part.
Second, we take prudent steps to protect ourselves and our families and minimize the risks, especially for the elderly.
Third, we REJECT THE FEAR NARRATIVE and insist on continuing to live our lives as normally as possible. We sound off in every arena possible -- in your home, on talk radio, in your community. We tell our elected representatives that we are knowledgeable, but we are not afraid and we DO NOT WANT GOVERNMENT-MANDATED OR GOVERNMENT-ENCOURAGED economic and societal shutdown.
+ + The ultimate danger we face:
Even beyond economic disruption and societal shutdown and the possible ramifications on a U.S. presidential election, our FEAR RESPONSE to this virus poses an even greater danger. It's possible that long after this Chinese Coronavirus event has come and gone, our society will have shifted further into the realm of fear and isolation.
We'll stop shaking hands and instead adopt the "elbow bump" as part of our new norm of "social separation"... We'll have even more justification for interacting virtually instead of in person.... Churches will only serve communion in those individual hermetically sealed communion packets... And we'll cement in our psyche a presupposition of social fear and isolation.
Dr. Sharkaway said it this way:
"[M]ostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
So let's get educated. Let's have open discussions in our circles of influence. Let's take prudent steps to protect our families. And let's refuse to give into the fear."
Labels: chloroquine, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Wuhan Coronavirus Facts
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